Hello, I’m Michael Cerami, and while my recent works might have hinted at a more pessimistic tone, today I bring a change of pace rooted in a modest but promising uptick in the Cubs’ fortunes. Particularly, their recent three-game rally and a series triumph over Baltimore have injected a small dose of optimism into my weary Cubs-fan heart.
As we eye the remaining schedule, according to the insightful calculations at Tankathon.com, the Cubs are in an advantageous position. The teams they will face for the remainder of the season hold a combined winning percentage of only .495, placing them among the top ten easiest schedules in Major League Baseball. Within the NL Central, only the Reds have a slightly more favorable schedule with a .492 percentage.
However, focusing just on the NL Central might mislead some, as the Cubs’ true battle seems to be in securing a Wild Card slot. Here’s the broader challenge: four of the five teams ahead of them — Atlanta, Cincinnati, San Diego, New York, and San Francisco — also enjoy easier schedules. Those margins in the wild card race range from 1.0 to 8.0 games ahead of the Cubs.
Despite the daunting names on their upcoming schedule, including matchups against the Phillies, Guardians, Orioles, Yankees, Dodgers, and Brewers, there’s an interesting twist post-All-Star break. Many of the weaker teams the Cubs face will likely have diminished rosters due to trade deals, potentially easing the Cubs’ path even further. Specifically, after the deadline, the Cubs will square off against numerous teams currently below .500, and potentially weaker by then, like the Reds, White Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, Marlins, Pirates, Nationals, Rockies, and A’s — making up a substantial 35 games.
The August schedule appears particularly forgiving. Not only does it mostly feature less challenging opponents, but it also includes five off-days and almost all travel restricted to the Midwest, which should reduce wear and tear on the team.
With so much to overcome to dodge a potential sell-off, every game, including the challenging four-game set against the Cardinals this weekend, counts significantly. Last year, the Cubs managed to stave off a tear-down, and if they can replicate that, a softer August schedule could be their ticket to gaining significant ground.
While banking on this turning the Cubs’ season around might seem far-fetched, it’s not unreasonable to hope. A couple of wins against strong teams can rekindle the fires of optimism even in the most disheartened fans. I know it’s a long shot, but perhaps, just maybe, we’re allowed a little bit of that sweet baseball magic.
